The Global Hots. A Speculation

February 20th, 2008 Posted in Global Warming, Mass Movements

The ultimate threat is that we all die in short order and our species follows the dinosaurs into unlamented oblivion. The negative vectors come from every and all directions–microbial, chemical, the physical environment, explosive militant ideologies, and so on. Our defenses are deployed, some more extensive than others–centers for disease control, food purity laws backed by inspectors (with some exceptions), military postures, espionage oversight, as well as pro-actions against the perceived dangers. It is an all-out struggle against a spectrum of plagues. In the the U.S.A. it seems as though all doors have been at least partially barred except the one against heat that stands unexpectedly ajar. “Come on in Global Warming,” we invite, “and continue to light our fire.”

Down the road, nobody knows when, all the people and animals and other life forms will literally be in this fire. Fried, baked, or broiled. The ice melted, we along the coasts afloat in boiling water. All the air conditioners blown out. Temperature 150 degrees Fahrenheit at the poles. Chickens laying hard-cooked eggs. Martinis served like hot tea. The possibility of a cold shower a surreal dream. Otherwise the world a vast arid desert visited with disturbing frequency by violent wind storms. A painful fantasy of temperature-future that in one form or another troubles us all with the exception of a few coal, oil, and gas barons who must weigh this heavy down-side against the certainty of cash filled heat-proof vaults if the regime of carbon compound energy continues onward in the same old way.

None of us can actually know the future except as it turns into the past. The concrete weather is subject to all causes–the unexpected meteor hit, the unknown contingencies within the natural system beyond man’s interventions. There might be an upcoming, though not anticipated by us, Ice Age that will neutralize our fires, gallop to our rescue.

But our scientists (specialists in the relevant fields) in their collective wisdom assure us that we are in the era of the global hots and according to their best estimates the process is accelerating and its primary cause is located within human activity that converts fossil fuels into energy. The resolution, the hope, is that to the extent we cause, we may also negate. We give up the use of these products and the heating process might reduce. We might still close the door on this threatening scourge. Maybe, maybe not.

If the urgings of our scientists were all we had, the effort to turn away from the petroleum products would still make sense. In this particular gamble the scientists are our best and brightest tipsters. If not them, who? But there are other facts that push us in the same direction. All the indicators point the same way.

The sources of petroleum products are rapidly being exhausted. It won’t be long until we are forced to convert away from this energy source anyway. Starting now in anticipation, given the heating up we are into, makes sense. Why wait until the last minute? The Titanic is sinking might as well jump off.

Large patches of petroleum products are held by governing cadres who have formed an international cartel to control the supply available for the rest of us. Our reliance on their benevolence is misplaced. Their profits and income turn on the limits they place on distribution. They are in bed with our own petroleum barons in this respect. Politically their control over supply can also be converted to power over our own actions. We are subject to their extortion. If we could successfully convert away from petroleum products as our energy source we might escape the clutches of the cartel. Free at last.

Conversion to alternate energies introduces and expands new technologies and industries. Expect a new economic bonanza. Meanwhile the decommissioning of the fossil fuels will be slow enough and elongated enough for a soft landing. Well managed, the losses to the oil barons and the OPEC nations and their associated workers will be minimized. Good chance for a win-win outcome. Everybody happy as the long snow filled winters return.

So scientific advisers, limited supply, international relations, expected economic prosperity and the facts as we know them on the ground–melting ice fields, rising mean temperatures, migration of animals and plants and microbes northward in the northern hemisphere, frozen tundra turning to mush. What are we waiting for?

A lot of society-wide projects actually only mobilize a small portion of us. In the struggle against terrorists the front-line soldiers and the industrial firms that supply them are specialists. The astronauts headed for outer space and their commercial suppliers are also specialists. The Manhattan Project to create an atomic bomb mobilized only a fraction of us. In these cases the rest simply pay higher taxes and watch the TV story unfold unless the project is so secret we only know of it later, if ever.

But there are certain situations, we can hardly call them projects since the organization of the center is usually incomplete, that require the mobilization of all or at least the majority of the people. The distinction between player and spectator disappears. The divas, the leading performers, the chorus, the no-longer-audience all sing together full voice, belting it out. This is where the global hots sets–everyone in. We all contribute (admittedly unequally) to the cause and we all must contribute to the resolution if we are to maximize our chance for success. Global Cooling is a mass movement.

More next time. No sweat.

^^^^^

Notes.

The survival-extinction question is a world of its own. Search Google with “Threats to the Human Race” for a running start.

See http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf for the summary of the latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in 2007.